Juan Soto Declines 440 million dollar contract extension offer for 15 years, a Simple Math solution exists.

Washington Nationals offered Juan Soto 440 million dollars for 15 years, the offer was rejected so Washington is going to trade Juan Soto for a slew of quality prospects, a slew being 5 or 6 quality prospects.

 MLB discusses the Juan Soto situation here.

A few months ago I explained how to resolve the Jose Ramirez Contract talks with the Cleveland Guardians. My idea was used almost identically, ironically my idea should have been used identically since it would have back ended Jose Ramirez's final two years at a lower amount so the front of the contract could be across the board front loaded while while Jose is in his prime. 

In a second article after the contract extension was announced, I explained where the final agreement fell slightly short of what it could and should have been. Jose Ramirez's graciousness allowed the deal to go through without the final little touch I would have insisted upon. I still hope the Dolan's realize the error of their ways and push the final two arbitration years to the back of the contract as I had suggested.

As for the Juan Sotoa contract situation, Simple Math Detective has a simple question, how many years is Washington willing to offer 450 million? (the 440 was an obvious ploy to agree to level it off at 450 in exchange for a deal.)

Why does the Washington offer have to be for 15 years? What if the Nationals offer 450 million for 12 years? Suddenly that is 36.29 million per year instead of 30 million.

Soto is 2.4 years away from free agency, so being confined to the arbitration rules until then might mean Soto gets significantly less than the Nationals per year offer over these next 30 arbitration months. By signing now, Soto may gain an additional 20 million without having to push for any more than the 450 million. This would work out to 37.9 million per year if the Nationals agree to start Soto's new deal immediately.

Ironically, if Soto were to sign a 12.4 year deal now, he would only be around 35 years old when his deal expires, meaning he still could be in the market for another 3 year deal and assuming the earth and its people hold it together, that deal could be for 100 million.

The end result is 570 million dollars through age 38 whether Soto re-signs with the Nationals for 3 additional years or goes somewhere else. A second contract for 100 million, 450 million for the original contract, plus the 20 million additional million dollars by signing a new contract now rather than in 2. 4 years puts Soto at 570 million total, also known as 38 million a year for the next 15 years, well above the 29.5 million the Nationals have offered. 

It's all about Simple Math and this strategy could produce the result both sides want.

3 hours 50 minutes before LA Mayor Polls close, are the LA Times polling prediction results more mysterious than anyone realizes?

A Sunday, June 5, 2022 LA Times Mayoral Poll claims Karen Bass at 38%, Rick Caruso at 32%, Kevin De Leon at 6% and 15% undecided, There are nine total candidates for LA Mayor so the other six candidates apparently will share the remaining 9% of the vote.

If the Undecided decide not to vote, then suddenly the polling numbers have to be adjusted. The new result could be Bass 46%, Caruso 39%, Kevin Deleon 7%, rest of the field 8%.

Even Deleon could be a wildcard in this scenario in terms of what percentage he gets. It could be he gets more of the undecided vote who do not want either main candidate and ends up at 9%

That could make the final result Bass 46%, Caruso 39%, Deleon 9%, rest of the field 6%.

If it turns out the LA Times poll was inaccurate and Caruso actually had the lead, let's say it would have been Caruso 40%, Bass 37%, Deleon 8%, Undecided 15%, what happens if the Undecided don't vote?

Caruso might have 44%, Bass 40%, DeLeon 10%, rest of the field 6%.

In all scenarios it appears that Mr. DeLeon will be the reason there probably will be a run-off in October. However, if the Undecided truly do not vote, both major candidates do have an outside shot of reaching the 50% plus one majority that would mean no run off election this fall.

The LA Mayor Polls could be precariously wrong because polls do not extrapolate the total results of those who have no chance to win but will still make a dent with their numbers, along with the undecided voters.

I think we have a 50/50 chance that the winning candidate may eclipse 50%, something no one is predicting.  

Not sure how important Karen Bass is to the Democrat National Party, but it sure is suspicious to me for so many Federal Employees to have descended on LA literally days before the Primary Election for the Summit of the Americas that will run all week that is being hosted by both Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

Who interferes with a local election literally on Election Day and the day before? Whose idea was that?

Originally I would have been willing to say that maybe Mr. Caruso gets over the 50% in the primaries, but with the infiltration of so many government based security personnel for Summit of the Americas.  I am starting to think maybe Karen Bass is going to reach 50% to the surprise of everyone. 

(Update: June 07 2022, 5:39:pm) Maybe Venezuela and Cuba were not invited knowing Mexico would not show up and thus any nefarious activity would be less likely to be noticed by other countries. Just throwing out a conspiracy theory based on the timing and circumstance of the Summit of the Americas. (End of June 07, 2022, 5:39pm update).