The NBA continues to tweak with the NBA Draft Lottery. In an effort to not reward teams that perennially lose and end up with really great draft pick positioning as a direct result, the NBA once again has changed the mathematical probabilities regarding how the bottom four teams will fare in terms of lottery positioning for the 2019 NBA draft.
The teams with the four worst records will have a cumulative chance of 56% of getting the first pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Stated another way, the top three teams with the worst NBA records only have about a 44% chance of getting the first pick in the 2019 NBA Draft.
If the first pick in the Draft does not go to one of the three worst won loss record teams in the league, we could see a 3,4,5, draft position for those three teams. Of course all variations are in play. We could see 2,4,5 for the three worst records.
Simple Math Detective is relatively certain we won't see a 1,2,3 finish for the three teams with the worst record in the NBA. Once one of the three teams does place, it just means at least one of the remaining two of the top three teams with the worst record will probably fall an extra position. I doubt we will see a 2,3,4 finish for the top three teams with the worst records in the NBA.
The 2019 NBA draft will probably leave a lasting bad memory for at least one if not two of the three teams with the worst records in the league.
What we won't see, we won't see a 1,2 finish among the three teams with the worst record, and we certainly won't see a 1,2,3, finish. Since we probably won't see the number one pick going to any of the worst three, that leaves a 2,4, and 5 scenario for the three teams with the worst record.
After the 2019 draft is done, there is a clever tweak the NBA could make so the 2020 draft probably better reflects the delicate balance of the worst teams getting the best picks and the slightly better than worst teams retaining a chance to move up in the Draft.