Saturday, July 23, 2022

Juan Soto Declines 440 million dollar contract extension offer for 15 years, a Simple Math solution exists.

Washington Nationals offered Juan Soto 440 million dollars for 15 years, the offer was rejected so Washington is going to trade Juan Soto for a slew of quality prospects, a slew being 5 or 6 quality prospects.

 MLB discusses the Juan Soto situation here.

A few months ago I explained how to resolve the Jose Ramirez Contract talks with the Cleveland Guardians. My idea was used almost identically, ironically my idea should have been used identically since it would have back ended Jose Ramirez's final two years at a lower amount so the front of the contract could be across the board front loaded while while Jose is in his prime. 

In a second article after the contract extension was announced, I explained where the final agreement fell slightly short of what it could and should have been. Jose Ramirez's graciousness allowed the deal to go through without the final little touch I would have insisted upon. I still hope the Dolan's realize the error of their ways and push the final two arbitration years to the back of the contract as I had suggested.

As for the Juan Sotoa contract situation, Simple Math Detective has a simple question, how many years is Washington willing to offer 450 million? (the 440 was an obvious ploy to agree to level it off at 450 in exchange for a deal.)

Why does the Washington offer have to be for 15 years? What if the Nationals offer 450 million for 12 years? Suddenly that is 36.29 million per year instead of 30 million.

Soto is 2.4 years away from free agency, so being confined to the arbitration rules until then might mean Soto gets significantly less than the Nationals per year offer over these next 30 arbitration months. By signing now, Soto may gain an additional 20 million without having to push for any more than the 450 million. This would work out to 37.9 million per year if the Nationals agree to start Soto's new deal immediately.

Ironically, if Soto were to sign a 12.4 year deal now, he would only be around 35 years old when his deal expires, meaning he still could be in the market for another 3 year deal and assuming the earth and its people hold it together, that deal could be for 100 million.

The end result is 570 million dollars through age 38 whether Soto re-signs with the Nationals for 3 additional years or goes somewhere else. A second contract for 100 million, 450 million for the original contract, plus the 20 million additional million dollars by signing a new contract now rather than in 2. 4 years puts Soto at 570 million total, also known as 38 million a year for the next 15 years, well above the 29.5 million the Nationals have offered. 

It's all about Simple Math and this strategy could produce the result both sides want.

Tuesday, June 7, 2022

3 hours 50 minutes before LA Mayor Polls close, are the LA Times polling prediction results more mysterious than anyone realizes?

A Sunday, June 5, 2022 LA Times Mayoral Poll claims Karen Bass at 38%, Rick Caruso at 32%, Kevin De Leon at 6% and 15% undecided, There are nine total candidates for LA Mayor so the other six candidates apparently will share the remaining 9% of the vote.

If the Undecided decide not to vote, then suddenly the polling numbers have to be adjusted. The new result could be Bass 46%, Caruso 39%, Kevin Deleon 7%, rest of the field 8%.

Even Deleon could be a wildcard in this scenario in terms of what percentage he gets. It could be he gets more of the undecided vote who do not want either main candidate and ends up at 9%

That could make the final result Bass 46%, Caruso 39%, Deleon 9%, rest of the field 6%.

If it turns out the LA Times poll was inaccurate and Caruso actually had the lead, let's say it would have been Caruso 40%, Bass 37%, Deleon 8%, Undecided 15%, what happens if the Undecided don't vote?

Caruso might have 44%, Bass 40%, DeLeon 10%, rest of the field 6%.

In all scenarios it appears that Mr. DeLeon will be the reason there probably will be a run-off in October. However, if the Undecided truly do not vote, both major candidates do have an outside shot of reaching the 50% plus one majority that would mean no run off election this fall.

The LA Mayor Polls could be precariously wrong because polls do not extrapolate the total results of those who have no chance to win but will still make a dent with their numbers, along with the undecided voters.

I think we have a 50/50 chance that the winning candidate may eclipse 50%, something no one is predicting.  

Not sure how important Karen Bass is to the Democrat National Party, but it sure is suspicious to me for so many Federal Employees to have descended on LA literally days before the Primary Election for the Summit of the Americas that will run all week that is being hosted by both Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

Who interferes with a local election literally on Election Day and the day before? Whose idea was that?

Originally I would have been willing to say that maybe Mr. Caruso gets over the 50% in the primaries, but with the infiltration of so many government based security personnel for Summit of the Americas.  I am starting to think maybe Karen Bass is going to reach 50% to the surprise of everyone. 

(Update: June 07 2022, 5:39:pm) Maybe Venezuela and Cuba were not invited knowing Mexico would not show up and thus any nefarious activity would be less likely to be noticed by other countries. Just throwing out a conspiracy theory based on the timing and circumstance of the Summit of the Americas. (End of June 07, 2022, 5:39pm update).


Sunday, January 24, 2021

Front Loading a Young MLB Superstar's contract early on may be the key to keeping them beyond six years.

Many MLB teams are gleeful when one of their young prospects practically becomes an instant star. The young baseball player is under "team control" for the first six years of their career and the return on investment during those first three years can be a remarkable value to many a team.

However, something definitely went "wrong" perhaps a decade or more ago when arbitration started amping up arbitration eligible players by surprising amounts. Teams that thought they had at least 5 years of affordable control found the fifth year could suddenly cost them 17 million. A four year player could command 10 million.

Even more frightening, players that had poor seasons or missed most of the season due to injury STILL got a raise.

It was as if 6 year control was really 3 year control and then hope that the fourth year was not too high of a jump so that maybe they could also keep the player for the fifth year. In some instances, it has become 4 years and goodbye, we can't afford you.

However, sometimes creative math can rebalance the playing field. For every player who is truly going to have a prolific career there are several others who may either peak early, or, turn into solid players with untapped upside that may not reveal itself until their 7th or 8th season.

If a team is certain a player is going to be a can't miss player then perhaps a front loading contract pricing strategy needs to be considered. If MLB arbitration players can now reach 22 million to 25 million by year six, then maybe the lure of front loaded contracts may be the next best move for an MLB team that wants to try and squeeze one or two more years from their young stars before they lose them to free agency.

Let's take a look at the Cleveland Indians Salary obligations for Francisco Lindor. The jump from season three to season four is remarkable. There is literally a 1,500% increase in Salary.

However, it should also be noted the remarkable return Mr. Lindor contributed over his first four seasons. The Indians tried to lock up Mr. Lindor after his second season. Lindor's first season was a mid season call up so it was his second season that counted towards his six years. The rumor I heard was the Indians offered around 105 million for probably 7 more seasons for a total of 8 seasons plus the 2/3's of a season that did not count towards his six year commitment.

Unfortunately for the Cleveland Indians, between the signing bonus money Mr. Lindor received, PLUS the New Balance Contract Mr. Lindor already had signed, Mr. Lindor felt comfortable biding his time until his six years were up.

In an ironic twist early on, Lindor's call up was delayed so the Indians could get an extra 2/3's of a season that would not count towards his six years. The irony was that was the year the Indians barely missed the playoffs and maybe if Lindor had been called up early enough, maybe he is a difference maker.  Although, it can also be argued that Jose Ramirez, who was called up first in that same year, got invaluable time at shortstop that help with his development.

Either way, how could the Indians have structured their offer to lure Mr. Lindor into staying in Cleveland for a couple more years?

Assuming the Indians did offer Mr. Lindor 105 million for a 7 year extension after his second year in Cleveland (but only his first towards his Aribtration 6), they probably offered something like 1 million, 4 million, 10 million, 15 million, 20 million, 25 million, 30 million.

I am totally ball parking the numbers but they probably are close enough to the offer that was made.

This is what I would have offered Mr. Lindor, a front loaded conract.... 15 million, 15 million 15 million, 15 million, 15 million, 15 million, 15 million, Starting after the first year of his arbitration which would be year two in the league since his first 2/3's year did not count towards Arbitration.

In the front loaded version after 4 years Mr. Lindor gets 60 million, in the original offer, after four years Mr. Lindor gets 30 million.  

The front loaded contract gives Mr. Lindor 15 extra million after year one, a total of 25 million after year 2, and a total of 30 million more after year three, a serious chunk of front loaded money to reinvest. While more conventional contracts are back heavy, the front loaded contract gives Mr. Lindor more opportunities to immediately start getting a bigger return on his contract which can also be a hedge in the event there is any kind of performance or injury clause in the contract. 

Even if there is no injury or performance clause, the odds are the front loaded contract might be worth signing since it is overall a better deal and does not put off paying Mr. Lindor in the future what he can earn today.

Now lets compare the front loaded deal to what Mr. Lindor has actually received. 

As it turns out, either of the Indians offers may turn out to be better because of the impact that the Coronavirus has had. But based on the published numbers which do not show any Coronavirus impact, Mr. Lindor will receive 52 million through his sixth season. Assuming his free agency lands him a 30 million a year contract, add two years in at 60 million for a total of 112 million for 8 years. For a paltry 7 million "extra dollars",  Mr. Lindor will have to wait until his 9th year in the league to come out ahead when he could have come out ahead 7 years earlier! And, if Mr. Lindor had made any kind of wise investments with a front loaded contract, the front loaded contract probably nets him anywhere from 5 million to 25 million extra since it was all guaranteed up front early on.

Mr. Lindor really has yet to see a return on his decision to wait it out. Lindor never delivered a championship season in Cleveland and his leaving does tarnish his overall "love of the game" reputation just a bit since in Cleveland not only was he highly regarded, but his health was valued and he was never rushed or forced to play when injured.

Mr. Lindor tries to take the position that he has never said he could lead or carry a team on his shoulders to a championship, and yet, he wants to be paid like someone who can.

Possibly the cruelest irony is Francisco Lindor is from Puerto Rico and the Cleveland Indians are the Puerto Rico of MLB, too poor to buy a championship, but too proud and strong enough to run together an impressive 7 years of .500 or better baseball and one of the best winning percentages during that seven year in all of baseball. 

I doubt the Indians made it clear to Lindor that winning a championship in Cleveland would be almost identical to Puerto Rico winning the World Series and that this could happen if Mr. Lindor did not tie his value to getting the biggest contract possible. 

It appears Mr. Lindor wants to be on a team that can afford to pay their top 2 or 3 players 30 million a year. Yet that is a song and dance that has torpedo'd other teams with 2 or more future Hall of Fame players such as the Detroit Tigers and the California Angels.

It is very rarified air to find teams that can pay 2 players 30 million or more each, per season and still win a championship. It may be even thinner air to find a team that can pay 2 players 30 million a year and also be a perennial playoff and championship caliber team. the reason being any team with two great players being paid 30 million a year or more requires at least 3 additional players who are really good. So good that when they see that two teammates are making 30 million or more, they want at least 20 million a year. Suddenly a team's. Suddenly the team's top five players put the payroll at 120 million.  Suddenly, certain positions have to used to offset the 120 million already spent on only 5 players and the team becomes mired at around .500 or barely over.

The Indians now face a similar situation with their star pitcher, Shane Bieber. It is my personal opinion that Mr Beiber's stuff did not look as good as the Yankees Gerrit Cole during the 2020 playoffs. And yet, during the regular season Beiber looked fantastic. 

Cole appears to throw about 3 to 4 miles an hour faster on his fastball and his pitches can have an unhittable rise to them. Beiber seems better at pin point accuracy but it seems in terms of raw pitching, Cole has strike out pitches and Beiber has fake out pitches. During the regular season fake out pitches work well because a pitcher is constantly facing new opponents and he can feast on the more average teams. However, a disciplined playoff team may not bite at Beiber's fake out pitches and suddenly he may only be a 5 or 6 inning pitcher.

Do the Indians risk a front loaded contract on Beiber or has he already maxed out and may ultimately be the second best pitcher on the team, rather than the best? Or is Bieber's work ethic and overall mental make-up and his overall demeanor a keeper and the Indians should make an effort to keep him here long term?

And if the Indians do make a long term offer, do they front load it, or not?

Monday, May 27, 2019

Sixty Minutes uses phrase "Simple Math" in it's Sunday, May 26, 2019 episode during their Horse Adoption Segment.

Nice to see Sixty Minutes acknowledge and use the concept of "Simple Math" to describe how the U.S. Government was able to save the lives of Wild Horses.

Perhaps due to the Memorial Holiday weekend I have been unable to find a link to the story. When I find it I will add it.

Sunday, April 7, 2019

2019 NBA Draft Lottery could produce some Disappointed Bottom 3 or 4 team Draft Position Results.

Edit update, (Monday, May 27, 2019) when I wrote this article I somehow had incorrectly concluded that the three worst records could not pick lower than five, so my prediction was of course much too generous as a result. end of update.

The NBA continues to tweak with the NBA Draft Lottery. In an effort to not reward teams that perennially lose and end up with really great draft pick positioning as a direct result, the NBA once again has changed the mathematical probabilities regarding how the bottom four teams will fare in terms of lottery positioning for the 2019 NBA draft.

The teams with the four worst records will have a cumulative chance of 56% of getting the first pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Stated another way, the top three teams with the worst NBA records only have about a 44% chance of getting the first pick in the 2019 NBA Draft.

If the first pick in the Draft does not go to one of the three worst won loss record teams in the league, we could see a 3,4,5, draft position for those three teams. Of course all variations are in play. We could see 2,4,5 for the three worst records. 

Simple Math Detective is relatively certain we won't see a 1,2,3 finish for the three teams with the worst record in the NBA. Once one of the three teams does place, it just means at least one of the remaining two of the top three teams with the worst record will probably fall an extra position. I doubt we will see a 2,3,4 finish for the top three teams with the worst records in the NBA.

The 2019 NBA draft will probably leave a lasting bad memory for at least one if not two of the three teams with the worst records in the league.

What we won't see, we won't see a 1,2 finish among the three teams with the worst record, and we certainly won't see a 1,2,3, finish. Since we probably won't see the number one pick going to any of the worst three, that leaves a 2,4, and 5 scenario for the three teams with the worst record. 

After the 2019 draft is done, there is a clever tweak the NBA could make so the 2020 draft probably better reflects the delicate balance of the worst teams getting the best picks and the slightly better than worst teams retaining a chance to move up in the Draft.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

College Bribery Enrollment Scandal Misses the Simple Math Solution.

The entire College Bribery Scandal seems to be another adventure in pointless class envy that everyone will take way too seriously, and could send some parents to jail. Or the Feds will use their Checkbook Justice Mafia to fine rich people so they can fund the Treasury. None of what is going to happen will help the people who need it most, Middle and Lower Income class kids who want a chance to attend a prestigious University.
I don't care how much the College bribes were. What I don't understand is why couldn't the Ultra Wealthy Parents simply pay into a College Scholarship fund that would give less affluent but deserving students a free ride? 

If a Parent is willing to pay a 1/2 million dollar bribe to get  a Daughter or Son into a prestigious college, and then pay the tuition for their own son or daughter on top of that bribe, why not just create a special fund in which Affluent Parents donate a 1/2 million dollars so a certain number of other kids get a free ride to the college, and their own kid gets to attend as well as long as they pay for their tuition.

While law and order will bellow that bribery is against the law, why isn't lack of common fiduciary sense against the law? If there are people out there willing to make extraordinary payments to ensure their kids get into a college, then just let them make the payment directly to the college so less wealthy families can benefit. 

Imagine if a half a million dollar bribery check had been split into ten 50,000 dollar scholarships. Would anyone really care that in exchange for that tremendous donation, the Donor could then pay the regular tuition price to have their own child admitted to the College?

In the absence of this common sense approach, I am hoping a Judge will see through the entire Federal Scheme to shame people who should have first been given the opportunity to make a significant donation to the school so those less wealthy could attend in exchange for the privilege of then paying full tuition price for their own child's enrollment.