Tuesday, June 7, 2022

3 hours 50 minutes before LA Mayor Polls close, are the LA Times polling prediction results more mysterious than anyone realizes?

A Sunday, June 5, 2022 LA Times Mayoral Poll claims Karen Bass at 38%, Rick Caruso at 32%, Kevin De Leon at 6% and 15% undecided, There are nine total candidates for LA Mayor so the other six candidates apparently will share the remaining 9% of the vote.

If the Undecided decide not to vote, then suddenly the polling numbers have to be adjusted. The new result could be Bass 46%, Caruso 39%, Kevin Deleon 7%, rest of the field 8%.

Even Deleon could be a wildcard in this scenario in terms of what percentage he gets. It could be he gets more of the undecided vote who do not want either main candidate and ends up at 9%

That could make the final result Bass 46%, Caruso 39%, Deleon 9%, rest of the field 6%.

If it turns out the LA Times poll was inaccurate and Caruso actually had the lead, let's say it would have been Caruso 40%, Bass 37%, Deleon 8%, Undecided 15%, what happens if the Undecided don't vote?

Caruso might have 44%, Bass 40%, DeLeon 10%, rest of the field 6%.

In all scenarios it appears that Mr. DeLeon will be the reason there probably will be a run-off in October. However, if the Undecided truly do not vote, both major candidates do have an outside shot of reaching the 50% plus one majority that would mean no run off election this fall.

The LA Mayor Polls could be precariously wrong because polls do not extrapolate the total results of those who have no chance to win but will still make a dent with their numbers, along with the undecided voters.

I think we have a 50/50 chance that the winning candidate may eclipse 50%, something no one is predicting.  

Not sure how important Karen Bass is to the Democrat National Party, but it sure is suspicious to me for so many Federal Employees to have descended on LA literally days before the Primary Election for the Summit of the Americas that will run all week that is being hosted by both Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

Who interferes with a local election literally on Election Day and the day before? Whose idea was that?

Originally I would have been willing to say that maybe Mr. Caruso gets over the 50% in the primaries, but with the infiltration of so many government based security personnel for Summit of the Americas.  I am starting to think maybe Karen Bass is going to reach 50% to the surprise of everyone. 

(Update: June 07 2022, 5:39:pm) Maybe Venezuela and Cuba were not invited knowing Mexico would not show up and thus any nefarious activity would be less likely to be noticed by other countries. Just throwing out a conspiracy theory based on the timing and circumstance of the Summit of the Americas. (End of June 07, 2022, 5:39pm update).